Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the connectedness among 12 African equity markets and the global commodity, developed equity markets, paying particular attention to their evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic's peak period. We find that whilst African equity markets connect weakly to these markets, the levels of connectedness among these markets improved significantly during the pandemic. In addition, the energy market dominates the transmission of shocks in the system with commodity markets. Regarding the system with equity markets, the French and South African equity markets transmit the highest spillover in the full sample and during the pandemic's peak period, respectively. • Examines the connectedness among African equity and the global equity and commodity markets. • Examines the evolution of connectedness among these markets during the COVID-19. • African equity markets are weakly integrated with the global commodity and equity markets • During the COVID-19 peak period, however, the level of integration among these increased significantly. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Return and volatility spillovers among global assets: Comparing health crisis with geopolitical crisis

This study investigates the dynamic mechanism across equity, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets before and during health and geopolitical crisis (Covid-19 and the Ukrainian war). We apply the (TVP-VAR) based extended joint connectedness methodology, to understand return and volatility connectedness of financial markets for 2010–2023 period. The empirical results indicate that spillovers were particularly high during the Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war. First, health and geopolitical risks considerably impact the return and volatility system. Second, the value of total joint connectedness during the COVID-19 period was greater than during Russia-Ukraine war crisis. Also, evidence suggests that Commodity markets, received the highest shocks from other markets after Russia-Ukraine war and wheat was the main commodity receiving chocks from both health and geopolitical crisis. Our findings indicate that spillover channels differ depending on the type of crisis. Specifically, low-frequency components are the main transmission channels during the health crisis, whereas high-frequency components are the main transmission channels during the geopolitical crisis. Finally, results indicate that, cryptocurrency markets played some minor role in transmitting risks between markets. Our results are important in understanding how assets affect return and volatility spillover during geopolitical and health crises and are of particular importance to policymakers, market regulators, investors, and portfolio managers.

Volatility connectedness among the Indian equity and major commodity markets under the COVID-19 scenario

In this paper, the dynamic relationship between the volatilities of both the Indian equity market and six major commodity markets is analyzed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the time-varying parameters vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR) and wavelet coherence approach to assess the market connectedness. The results reveal a significant increase in volatility correlation and spillovers between the Indian equity market and the six major commodity markets after the outbreak of COVID-19. Furthermore, it was found that after the COVID-19 outbreak, the volatility from the commodity markets rapidly spilled over to the Indian equity market. The wavelet coherence also suggests that the Indian equity market and the six major commodity markets may exhibit higher levels of contagion over the medium and long term. This evidence has important implications for financial risk management, macroprudential policy design, and investors who are interested in the volatility linkages between the Indian markets and major commodities.

Dynamic linkages between shipping and commodity markets: Evidence from a novel asymmetric time-frequency method

This study extends the existing literature in this area by examining the connectedness and shock spillover between commodity and shipping markets using a new novel time-varying frequency and quantile connectedness method developed by Chatziantoniou et al (2022) based on B&K (2018) and Ando et al (2018). Connectedness and shock transmission between the markets were analysed with daily data covering July 4, 2012 to July 20, 2022. A major value added of this study to the existing literature is the examination of the asymmetric effect of commodity price changes (or return) on the connectedness of the markets. Mean-frequency total connectedness analysis indicates that, the overall shipping market (BDI) is both the transmitter (to) and receiver of the highest shock from the entire market connectedness system. In the short-term, the agricultural markets dominate as both the transmitters and receivers of the major shocks to and from the entire market system, while in the medium-term, the shipping markets dominate as both the transmitters and receivers of the largest shocks to the entire market system. However, in the long-term, connectedness and shock propagation were very low. The time-varying quantile analysis reveals that, connectedness was very strong before, during and after COVID-19 at the bearish and bullish market conditions. Further, the time-varying frequency connectedness analysis shows that, although total connectedness is relatively high overtime, it was propelled by short-term dynamics. Metal markets are connected among themselves, and with both agricultural and shipping markets. Agricultural markets are connected among themselves, and with shipping markets, which are only connected among themselves. There is evidence of the asymmetric effect of commodity return dynamics on the connectedness of the markets. Some important policy recommendations were drawn from the findings.

Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle

This paper is devoted to test agents' behavior in the markets of hard commodities by trying to distinguish between managing future price structures to hedge their positions and speculating in on prices. We do a triple analysis: cointegration on the time series, structural breaks over the full time series and panel data. The analysis of the full series and the identification of structural breaks allows us to discover the connection between high prices and the negative futures price structure (backwardation) in rising prices scenarios of tin, copper, aluminium, and zinc. Moreover, we obtain that the base metals full matrix (price and futures price structure) is cointegrated in our analysis that uses panel data methods. We believe that these results are important for agents in the markets, as commodity traders or brokers, to maximize profits in their hedging positions.

Price Transmission and Asymmetry in the Colorado Potato Supply Chain

We conduct a time-series analysis of Colorado, Idaho, and national potato markets to examine price transmission and asymmetry (relative likelihood and magnitude of upward versus downward price shocks). Prices are typically driven by supply-side shocks. Colorado potato producers' prices are influenced by Idaho and experience unfavorable asymmetry relative to downstream parties. We apply findings to the COVID-19 lockdown period as a case study to explore market behavior during that time. Identifying and noting potentially harmful price dynamics in commodity markets could help producers effectively respond to similar shocks in the future. © 2022, Food Distribution Research Society. All rights reserved.

COVID-19 Impact and Policy Response: A General Equilibrium Approach for Egypt

The economic impacts of COVID-19 were negative across nations but with different degrees depending on the timing, degree of containment measures and the extent of dependency on the world economy. Moreover, the policy response has been heterogeneous across different countries, but mainly addressing urgent and short-term problems without addressing the structural problems that led to the vulnerability of these countries in crisis times. Thus, the objective of this paper is threefold. First, it distinguishes between the supply and demand effects of COVID-19. Second, we examine the key differences between the short and long terms effects of the policies that were adopted. Finally, we modify the model to include the informal labor that was highly affected by the pandemic, and we relax the assumption of perfect competition and replicate the simulations under an imperfect competitive framework in order to see how reforms pertaining to competition policies can alter the adopted policies. To do so, we use a dynamic CGE model calibrated on the Egyptian Social Accounting Matrix of 2014/2015. Our findings show how the Egyptian economy has been relatively vulnerable to external shocks that affect its sources of foreign currency. Yet, most of the effects are temporary and vanish in the long run. Imperfect competition in commodity markets would increase the adverse effects of the pandemic and undermine the effectiveness of public policies.

Dynamic connectedness between COVID-19 news sentiment, capital and commodity markets

This study investigates the dynamic transmission mechanism between COVID-19 news sentiment (Google Trends Index), and S&P100, crude oil and gold volatility indices using the recently developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR)-based extended joint connectedness approach. This framework corrects for the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) normalization problem. The obtained empirical results suggest that dynamic total connectedness is heterogeneous over time and severely affected by COVID-19. More importantly, we identify COVID-19 news sentiment to be the main driver of spillover shocks indicating that it is indeed an important predictor of the volatility indices employed in our study. Thus, our findings have important implications for policymakers, private investors, as well as for portfolios and risk managers.

Stochastic ordering of systemic risk in commodity markets

The contribution of commodity risks to the systemic risk is assessed in this paper through a novel approach that relies on the stochastic property of concordance ordering of CoVaR. Considering the period that spans from 2005 to 2022 and the VIX as the proxy for the stability of the financial system, we build the stochastic ordering of systemic risk for 35 commodities belonging to four sectors: Agriculture, Energy, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals. The estimates of the ΔCoVaR signal that contagion effects from commodity markets to the financial system have been stronger during the years 2017–2019. Backtests validate CoVaR as a more resilient risk measure than the VaR, especially during periods of market turmoils. The stochastic ordering of CoVaR shows that severe losses (downside risk) in commodity markets tend to exacerbate systemic financial distress more than gains (upside risk). Commodity risks arising from WTI and EUA are threatening triggers for systemic risk. In contrast, the financial system is less vulnerable to a broader range of scenarios arising from fluctuations in Gold prices. As top contributors to the systemic risk, among the sectors we find Energy and Precious Metals with respect to upside risk and downside risk. The Covid-19 crisis has deeply amplified the systemic influence arising from the downside risk of WTI, Gasoline, and Natural Gas UK and has confirmed the safe-haven role of Gold. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Tail dependence, dynamic linkages, and extreme spillover between the stock and China's commodity markets

Cross-market linkage and spillover effects under extreme risk scenarios have recently attracted widespread attention from scholars. However, few studies have focused on tail dependence and extreme spillovers between the stock and the Chinese commodity markets. For the first time, this paper investigates the tail dependence, dynamic linkages, and extreme return spillovers between the stock market and China's commodity markets, employing the novel quantile coherency, DCC-FIGARCH model, and quantile connectedness approach. The empirical results demonstrate that chemical commodities and non-ferrous metals exhibit relatively stronger linkages with the US and Chinese stock markets. Lower return quantiles of the stock markets exhibit higher coherency with the lower return quantiles of Chinese commodity markets in the long-term time horizon. The quantile coherency in the long-term (yearly) is higher than that in the middle (monthly) and short-term (weekly) time horizons. The dynamic linkages and return spillovers change over time and are vulnerable to major crises, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The return spillovers at the extreme lower quantile are stronger than the spillovers at the extreme upper and median quantiles. Chemical commodity and non-ferrous metal sectors (grain commodity and noble metal sectors) are the two key net transmitters (recipients) of the return spillovers. The Chinese and US stock markets mainly act as the net recipients of the extreme spillovers.

Stochastic ordering of systemic risk in commodity markets

The contribution of commodity risks to the systemic risk is assessed in this paper through a novel approach that relies on the stochastic property of concordance ordering of CoVaR. Considering the period that spans from 2005 to 2022 and the VIX as the proxy for the stability of the financial system, we build the stochastic ordering of systemic risk for 35 commodities belonging to four sectors: Agriculture, Energy, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals. The estimates of the ΔCoVaR signal that contagion effects from commodity markets to the financial system have been stronger during the years 2017–2019. Backtests validate CoVaR as a more resilient risk measure than the VaR, especially during periods of market turmoils. The stochastic ordering of CoVaR shows that severe losses (downside risk) in commodity markets tend to exacerbate systemic financial distress more than gains (upside risk). Commodity risks arising from WTI and EUA are threatening triggers for systemic risk. In contrast, the financial system is less vulnerable to a broader range of scenarios arising from fluctuations in Gold prices. As top contributors to the systemic risk, among the sectors we find Energy and Precious Metals with respect to upside risk and downside risk. The Covid-19 crisis has deeply amplified the systemic influence arising from the downside risk of WTI, Gasoline, and Natural Gas UK and has confirmed the safe-haven role of Gold.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing and commodities: dynamic connectedness and risk management strategies

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic connectedness and volatility spillovers between commodities and corporations exhibiting the best environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices. In addition, the authors determine the optimal hedge ratios and portfolio weights for ESG and commodity investors and portfolio managers. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the novel frequency connectedness framework to point out volatility spillover between ESG indices covering the USA, developed and emerging markets and commodity indices, including energy (crude oil, natural gas and heating oil), industrial metals (aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel and lead) and precious metals (gold and silver) by using daily data between January 3, 2011 and May 26, 2021, covering significant socio-economic developments and the COVID-19 outbreak. Findings The results of this study suggest a total connectedness index at a mediocre level, mainly driven by the shocks creating uncertainty in the short term. And the results indicate that all ESG indices are net volatility transmitters, and all commodity indices other than crude oil and copper are net volatility receivers. Practical implications The results imply statistically significant hedging and portfolio diversification opportunities to investors and portfolio managers across the asset classes, proven by the hedging effectiveness analyses. Social implications This study provides implications for policymakers focusing on the risk of contagion among the commodity and ESG markets during turbulent periods to ensure international financial stability. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by differentiating ESG portfolios as the USA, developed and developing markets and examining dynamic connectedness and volatility spillovers between ESG portfolios and commodities with a different technique. This study also contributes by considering COVID-19 outbreak.

Dynamic connectedness between clean energy stock markets and energy commodity markets during times of COVID-19: Empirical evidence from China

We examine the dynamic relationship between clean energy stock markets and energy commodity markets in China from a time-frequency perspective. The daily dataset spans from March 27th, 2018, to July 29th, 2022, and is utilized in this study. We find that the clean stock markets are the main contributors and recipients in this dynamic system in the short run, while the solid net contributor role of commodities is detected in the long run. In addition, in most cases, short-term spillovers can dominate the long-run ones. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, long-term spillovers can dominate short-run spillovers. In particular, it can be seen that in the short run, energy commodities can be easily influenced by clean energy stocks. In the long run, traditional energy assets are less affected. Finally, we show that COVID-19 can increase the hedging effectiveness of the portfolio design. We conclude with policy implications for energy and resources policymakers.

Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold.

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected stock markets around the globe, adding serious challenges to asset allocations and hedging strategies. This investigation analyses the dynamic correlations and portfolio implications among the S&P 500 index and various commodities (gold, WTI crude oil, Brent oil, beverages, and wheat) before and during the COVID-19 era. Using multivariate asymmetric GARCH models, the results show weak correlations during the standard period. However, the correlations intensify and become more complicated during the COVID-19 era, especially between gold and S&P 500. Similarly, bidirectional return and volatility spillovers across stock-commodity markets are more pronounced during the COVID-19 outbreak. Analysis involving the optimal portfolio weights and time-varying hedge ratios indicates that a $1long position in the S&P 500 can be hedged for 15 cents in crude oil during the standard period and for 33 cents in gold during the COVID-19 era. A portfolio of S&P 500 - beverages displays the highest VaR, while a portfolio of S&P 500 - gold displays the lowest VaR, especially during the COVID-19 era. This finding suggests that gold offers better portfolio diversification benefits and downside risk reductions, which are useful in determining strategies for portfolio investors during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Is stock market in Sub-Saharan Africa resilient to health shocks?

Purpose>This paper aims to examine the impact of health and other exogenous shocks on stock markets in Africa. Particularly, the authors examined the resilience of the major stock markets in 12 African economies during the recent global pandemic.Design/methodology/approach>This paper uses the recent panel vector autoregressive model, which enables us to capture the response of stock markets to shocks in COVID-19, commodity markets and exchange rate. For robustness, the authors also analysed the panel Granger causality test. Data was obtained for the period ranging from 2 January 2020 to 31 December 2020.Findings>The results show that the growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths do not have any substantial impact on the stock market returns of these economies. In terms of commodity markets, the authors find that gold price has a negative contemporaneous effect on stock returns, but the effect fizzles out around the fifth day while crude oil price, on the other hand, has a significant positive simult aneous impact on stock returns and also converges around the fifth day. The authors further find that the exchange rate has a contemporaneous and nonlinear effect on stock returns and seems to be more dramatic when compared with the other variables. Overall, the results show that stock markets in Africa appear to be flexible and resilient against the COVID-19 outbreak but are affected by other exogenous shocks such as volatile commodity prices and the foreign exchange market. The effect is, however, short-lived – between one to five days.Practical implications>Following the study’s findings, policies should be put in place to support financial markets by way of hedging against commodity instability and securing domestic currency financing. Policymakers are also recommended to concentrate on managing the uncertainties around their exchange rate markets and develop robust and efficient domestic financial markets to encourage local and foreign investors.Originality/value>Several studies have been carried out on the effects of disasters (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) on stock markets, but only a few studies have examined the resilience of stock markets to health and other exogenous shocks. This study’s attempt is not only to examine the impact of COVID-19 health shocks on stock markets but also to analyse the resilience of the sampled stock markets. The authors also analyse the resilience of stock markets to commodity markets and exchange rates shocks.

Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the connectedness among 12 African equity markets and the global commodity, developed equity markets, paying particular attention to their evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic's peak period. We find that whilst African equity markets connect weakly to these markets, the levels of connectedness among these markets improved significantly during the pandemic. In addition, the energy market dominates the transmission of shocks in the system with commodity markets. Regarding the system with equity markets, the French and South African equity markets transmit the highest spillover in the full sample and during the pandemic's peak period, respectively.

Time-varying pure contagion effect between energy and nonenergy commodity markets

This paper combines the Kalman filtering technique and the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility model to explore pure contagion effects between energy and nonenergy (i.e., industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural) commodity markets. Empirical results show the significant pure contagion effects between energy and industrial metals markets in most periods, while pure contagion effects between energy and precious metals and agricultural markets occur only in a few specific periods. Comparing the level of pure contagion effects between different commodity markets, energy is still the main price transmitter. In addition, with the acceleration of the global commodity market financialization process, the frequency and harm of pure contagion effects are gradually increasing. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic is emerging as another major crisis after the global financial crisis, exacerbating the pure contagion effects between energy and precious metals and agricultural markets. © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Time-frequency connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets during COVID-19: Evidence from China.

We aim to investigate the static and dynamic time-frequency connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets in China during COVID-19 based on Baruník and Krehlík (2018) method. First, in this paper, we find that the short-term connectedness dominates the long-term one, and the total connectedness increases after the COVID-19 outbreak. Second, the energy commodity is the receiver and is influenced much by the spillovers of non-energy commodity markets (e.g. chemical commodities and non-ferrous metals) in the short run. At the same time, the impact is less at the long-term investment horizons. In addition, chemical commodities and soft commodities are the primary transmitters in this system in the short run. In contrast, chemical commodities and coal steel iron commodities are the main long-run primary transmitters. Third, the spillover role varies with the time-frequency domain during COVID-19. To be more specific, the energy commodity shows a net receiver role in the short and long run before the COVID-19 pandemic, but after it, the role of the net transmitter can be seen in the long run with ease. Finally, we show that COVID can reduce the hedging effectiveness at different investment horizons. The mineral policymakers should note our dynamic empirical results between energy and nonenergy commodity.

Who are the influencers in the commodity markets during COVID-19?

Price volatility caused by the pandemic has caused serious concern in global commodity markets. The quantile connectedness method is used to investigate the net receiving/transmitting role of energy, shipping, metals and commodity markets. The results show dynamic quantile connectedness in the short run in the pre-pandemic. The net directional connectedness result explores that oil prices and commodity markets roles change between transmitting to receiving in the medium to upper quantiles. However, the receiving role is found for both the shipping industry and metals markets in upper quantiles. Similarly, the results of the dynamic connectedness during the COVID-19 display strong connectedness for higher volatility. The net directional connectedness outcomes show that oil prices, shipping and commodity markets have a transmitting/receiving role in the higher quantiles. The net transmitting period is seen more actively than the receiving one during the COVID-19. The policymakers are in need of planning policies while considering the heterogeneous impact of the international oil market on these commodity markets.

On the stylized facts of precious metals’ volatility: A comparative analysis of pre- and during COVID-19 crisis

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the stylized facts associated with the volatility of precious metals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using GARCH-type models. In particular, we employ an ARMA-GARCH, ARMA-EGARCH and ARMA-FIGARCH framework to account for volatility clustering, asymmetry and long memory in the volatility of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Based on structural breaks, we divide the whole sample into sub-samples and find that the breakpoints occurred after the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show a very distinct behaviour in the memory of the four metals before and during the crisis. While there is a moderate persistence in the full sample and in the pre-COVID-19 sub-period for the four metals, this effect vanishes after the crisis outburst. Positive asymmetric effects are also found in gold and silver volatilities, which intensify during COVID-19 phase. We ascribe this phenomenon to the hedge/safe-haven properties of these metals. By contrast, a diverse pattern is observed in the palladium and platinum volatilities, which display negative asymmetries before the pandemic, in tandem of financial markets. After the crisis, these metals show mixed evidence. Moreover, we argue that COVID-19 significantly affects the volatility of precious metals. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.